ECRI’s Leading indicators have been good predictor of EPS.
Treasuries are strong today. Bounce or safe haven return?
The court issued a temporary injunction. Expressed doubts about the legality of the bailout mechanism.
Italian 10 year bond auction was dismal. Far less than the E$ 8.5 billion was raised and bid to covers slid. Not quite the reaction one would expect if the much, celebrated by […]
Current Conditions: Yesterday we saw a 3.55% S&P rally on the European Summit agreement to kick the can down the road. Granted it was a @ $1.4 trillion kick. We […]
Selling our Long S&P 500 established @1225 here at 1285
We are closing our S&P vs DAX Compression Trade for a 5% gain here. Sell DAX 6430 buy $&P 1285
Current Conditions: One down four to go. How long will last nights agreement in Europebe celebrated? We feel that the initial knee-jerk reaction we will reach our first target of […]
We will establish a short Euro. Sell Euro 1.4040 to open short
We pulled back to the Pivot break out yesterday. In normal times with the market reacting to economic conditions we would expect the rally to resume to our 1275 first target with […]
Current Conditions: We were of the opinion that an announcement of some plan from the Euro Summit would spike the S&P to at least 1275 at which time we would take […]
What if they are unable to reach an agreement in Europe. Just think of the size QE# and the LSAP that are sure to come!
S&P 500 The S&P pushed higher yesterday after Fridays’ buy signal through the Pivot of 1225. First Target is 1275. We expect that anticipation of Euro debt deal will keep […]
Current Conditions: Market anticipating Euro bailout and some QE# . Shorts are covering all risk assets. VIX closed at 29.26 Current Positions: S&P Long 1227 Target 1275 HG Long 3.222 […]
Nobody wants to be short in front of Wednesday’s expected Euro deal to solve the financial crisis. We anticipate that the market creeps up the next two days. Most participants can’t believe that they […]
I am reading the text to the news release from the Summit. The only thing I can say is underwhelming! Germany has achieved its main aim, defeating French efforts to […]
Sunday, October 23, 2011 As this is being written we await news from the European summit on its futile attempts to resolve the financial crisis. Make no mistake […]
Weak economy as indicated by Coppers 6% fall coupled with surging money supply means we need to keep an eye on Gold and Silver
Current Conditions: More of the same, markets will react to the rumors from Europe. Copper’s 6% fall yesterday is an indication of underlying weakness in the global economy. China is to […]
The E$, Bonds, and Equity Markets are being jerked around by rumors of the Euro Summit being on again or postponed. Reason tells me that what ever they come up with will fail […]
The Euro plan will determine the markets direction for the next 3 months. The current Pivot is 1225. Above the 1225 Pivot and we run to at least 1275. At […]
Current Conditions: The markets are still in waiting mode. Will the news from the Euro Drs. be benign or malignant. Still range bound between 1225 and 1050. VIX closed at […]
It is understandable that investors flee the Bonds of troubled Sovereigns. This flight to “safety” explains the real negative returns this parked money experiences in the relatively “safe havens” of […]
Germany sold E$ 4.075 Billion in 10 yr Bunds aftertrying to sell E$ 5 Billion. The Technically Uncovered auction result reflects the fear that Klaus will be paying Demitri and […]
Current Conditions: Fragile low volume trading as markets wait for make or break bailout news from Europe. Markets ripped up late yesterday on news that the EFSF would be expanded to […]
Market rallied back to the pivot of 1225 on news of EFSF expansion too E$ 2 Trillion. If the news is true and actually gets done we can expect that […]
China reduced its holdings of Treasuries by $36.5 billion, 3.1% to $1.14trillion. Chinese are taking advantage of the Feds Operation twist to sell at record low yields and record high […]
Welcome to the command economy. Market and perceived economic direction will now be determined by the vagrancies of the powers that be.
Market Behavioral Analysis The U.S. Bond market is displaying bizare behavior. No amount of negative news, downgrades, budget deficit explosion, and soaring PPI, has the expected affect on price. Only […]
Market Behavioral Analysis The market is still in the grip of the news flow from the European comedy show. First they have a plan for a plan, and then all plans […]
This is a signal that all is not well in Euroland!
Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy’s tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some […]
I believe the markets have discounted a Greek default and the co-lateral damage to the banks. I do not believe that current prices are discounting the next dominoes to fall Italy and Spain and the […]