Hip Hip Hooray! Disappointing NFP! The world economies are weakening and this can only mean one thing, CB’s including the Fed will be getting their trigger fingers ready for the massive print fest! Nothing cures a debt crisis like more debt. Anyway all geniuses and Nobel prize winners know that the way to prosperity is to destroy the unit of money that your people use to store their wealth! Its criminal but until the masses feel enough pain they will allow the likes of Obama and Bernake to rob them of their present and their children s future. In the mean time as the charts below indicate the economy is sick as help wanted ads fall of the cliff. In the meantime China is grabbing as much gold as they can with out causing the panic that is getting closer by the day. This week saw equities celibate the coming print fest while bonds cant make up their minds yet if the destruction of fiat is a good thing or bad. Silver and Gold broke out to the upside with Silver leading the way. As they have no doubt. Copper is playing catch up.
The S&P still ignoring disappointing economic news as it awaits the C B reaction to the coming September Euro Crisis. The disappointing NFP number was viewed as the needed ingredient to ensure Fed action. We have no current position as market risk is large and we are currently neither technically over bought or over sold as indicated by current price in the middle of the range between Pivot and Pivot Top 1. We would use any celebratory rally to Pivot Top 1 to initiate short position.
As the European economies slip further into recession and the dire finances of the PIIGS take center stage the DAX reflects the hope that CB’s will react and printing fiat will save the day. We have initiated a short position in December DAX at 7242 at Pivot Top 1.
Bears are trapped again. We are still trapped in the last trap sprung in May. Bonds had a wild Friday as NFP disappointed and a minus 1 was reversed to a plus 1 1/12 on the day only to close unchanged. The horrible NFP had bond bulls exuberant until the printing party that is about to begin entered their consciousness. World wide economies are on the decline. The unsure future direction was evidenced by a close on the Pivot. Until participants realize that the math is undeniable and hope is abandoned frightened money will believe that they have found a safe haven. When that realization is reached the door will not be wide enough for all those who wish to exit.
This is the same story as above with Treasuries as both are deemed the only safe place to be until they are figured to be the bubble that they are!
The Euro has rallied through the Pivot. We are short Dec Euro at 1.2610. First target is the consolidation area around 1.2270. The horrible US NFP Numbers but some steam in the Euro. The Euro will not exist in its current formation 3 years hence. Some reformations are bullish while others bearish. We believe that all fiat currencies are doomed. All will lose out to precious metals.
Political happenings in the middle east and the specter of world wide money printing have pushed Crude higher and will continue to do so. We are flat and are looking for a pull back to Pivot to establish longs.
We have established shorts of December Unleaded at 2.8460. First target is 2.6940.
Energy: Heating Oil
No position. As dollar is weakened things will get more expensive. We will look to establish short position first touch 3.3130.
Energy: Natural Gas
We are long December Nat Gas 3.170. First target is Pivot Top 2 at 3.51.
After 4 month consolidation it appears Gold has broken above Pivot and is on its way to 1,800. We are long Silver and believe that is the better way to play the decimation of the Dollar.
We are long December Silver after roll. Our cost after roll is 28.50. We have blasted through first target Pivot Top 1 at $32.79. We are now looking for Pivot Top 2 to exit trades or a close below Pivot Top 1.
Copper has been lagging other metals. We are long Silver and will use that as our metal play.
Compression Trade FGBL vs TY
Short FGBL(German Bund) Long TY(Ten Year Treasury)
Compression Trade SI vs S
Long SI (Silver) Short S (Soy Beans)