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Core Producer Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 3 Years

For the first time in 3 years, Core Producer Prices have risen at a faster pace than The Fed’s mandated 2% target. May PPI (ex food and energy) rose 2.1% year-over-year, the highest since May 2014, as goods prices tumbled (gasoline, motor vehicles, fresh fruit) while services costs (retailer and wholesaler prices, and residential lending) jumped.

May 2014 was the last time that Core PPI (Ex Food and Energy)…

 

The breakdown shows a notable drop in Energy prices MoM with good prices tumbling as service costs jumping…

Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods moved down 0.5 percent in May, the largest decrease since a 0.6-percent drop in February 2016. Most of the May decline can be attributed to the index for final demand energy, which fell 3.0 percent. Prices for final demand foods decreased 0.2 percent. In contrast, the index for final demand goods less foods and energy edged up 0.1 percent.

 

Product detail: The May decrease in the index for final demand goods was led by an 11.2-percent drop in gasoline prices. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables, jet fuel, fresh fruits and melons, motor vehicles, and home heating oil also fell. Conversely, the index for pharmaceutical preparations rose 0.6 percent. Prices for beef and veal and for electric power also increased.

 

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services rose 0.3 percent in May following a 0.4-percent advance in April. The May increase can be attributed to the index for final demand trade services, which moved up 1.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing fell 0.1 percent, and the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services declined 0.5 percent.

 

Product detail: About half of the May increase in the index for final demand services can be traced to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which rose 16.1 percent. The indexes for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing; machinery and equipment wholesaling; residential real estate loans (partial); automobiles and automobile parts retailing; and food wholesaling also moved higher. Conversely, prices for guestroom rental decreased 5.2 percent. The indexes for airline passenger services and food retailing also moved lower.

 

Is this the well-timed excuse for a rate-hike tomorrow, despite collapsing macro data since the last Fed rate hike?

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